Analysis of hot rolled shopping malls
Now the domestic hot-rolled coil market price drop momentum has not completely stopped, about the future hot-rolled trend, we make some brief analysis:
First, the intensity of the policy has been markedly strengthened, and the export of hot coil has been blocked. As for the hot rolled coil products, the export volume has increased significantly in the past two years, and the proportion of the export steel has also gradually climbed. Assuming that the export volume of this year is equal to that of the previous year, the export volume of hot rolled coiled sheet in the last year can be estimated by 8.555.4 million tons. In the first quarter of this year, 2.2562 million tons of hot rolled coiled sheets have been exported from the mainland, far exceeding the 1.359 million tons of exports in the same period of the previous year. At the same time, 6.2962 million tons of hot rolled coiled sheets can be exported in the remaining three seasons. The reduction of export volume of hot rolled coiled sheets will become an inevitable trend.

Two, social inventory is stable. Now the social inventory is basically stable, and the hot-rolled coil market resources have not shown a major change, and from the current situation, the arrival of steel mills in the latter period will not be significantly increased, short-term resources will not pose a greater pressure on the market.
Three, the factory price policy has strong support for the future market. According to the recent price policy issued by steel mills, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coils in China will keep the ex-factory price unchanged in May, which will form a strong support for the post-hot-rolled coil market.
Four, the trend of world coil shop continues to vibrate. Because Europe's economic expansion is far weaker than expected, steel prices continue to vibrate higher despite the influx of imported steel due to high steel prices and the appreciation of the euro. Despite the slowdown in economic growth in the United States, steel prices have remained high, steel mills have also announced a continuous increase in ex-factory prices, and hot rolling prices are expected to continue to rise.
Regarding the future market trend, some operators and industry insiders still expressed optimism that the hot-rolled coil Market in the near future is still better reflected, there is still room for price rise, but fluctuations will not be great. This is because the fall in prices will be curbed by the support of the factory price rises.
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